Every month I pull fresh numbers from our MLS and break them down county by county. This month, a lot of you have asked me the same thing: "Should I wait for prices to come down this winter?" Here's what the numbers actually say.
How many homes are for sale in the Capital Region going into November?
The quickest way to read a market is "months of supply." It means: if no new homes came on the market, how many months would it take to sell everything that's listed? Under 6 months favors sellers. Over 6 favors buyers.
| County | Homes for sale | Sold, last 30 days | Months of supply | October update |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany County | About 564 | About 207 | 2.7 | Under 2.8 |
| Rensselaer County | About 316 | 100 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Saratoga County | About 623 | 190 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Schenectady County | About 358 | 105 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Warren County | About 302 | 71 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
Single-family homes, condos, townhouses and multi-family on our MLS feed, as of October 31, 2026. Sales are closings in the month before October 31. Months of supply = homes for sale divided by last month's sales. "October update" is from our October 2026 market update.
The short version: almost nothing moved. Saratoga County got a touch tighter and Albany County is about the same. Rensselaer, Schenectady and Warren counties loosened a little, mostly because fewer homes closed. Every county is still well under 6 months.
Will home prices drop in the Capital Region this winter?
I can't promise what any market will do. But a real price drop usually needs a pile-up of unsold homes, and we don't have one. Supply is about where it was a month ago, and still far below the 6-month line.
The asking prices of homes that just sold held steady too. They rose in Warren, Saratoga and Albany counties and were within about $2,000 of last month in Schenectady and Rensselaer counties:
| County | Avg. asking price, homes sold in last 30 days | October update |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County | About $648,000 | About $577,000 |
| Saratoga County | About $544,000 | About $516,000 |
| Albany County | About $371,000 | About $369,000 |
| Schenectady County | About $329,000 | About $330,000 |
| Rensselaer County | About $325,000 | About $327,000 |
Averages of list prices, not final sale prices, rounded to the nearest $1,000. Our MLS feed, October 31, 2026. A few high-priced Lake George area sales can swing Warren County's average a lot from month to month.
Zoom out and the trend is the same. The National Association of Realtors reported on October 13, 2026 that the median existing-home price in the Northeast was $523,600 in September, up 4.7% from a year earlier.
What are mortgage rates right now?
This is the part that has changed. Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 7.24% on October 29, 2026. That's down from 7.32% the week before, but up from 6.17% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%.
| Monthly principal and interest on a $350,000, 30-year loan | Payment |
|---|---|
| At 6.17% (a year ago) | About $2,137 |
| At 7.24% (October 29, 2026) | About $2,385 |
Principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any PMI are extra. Your own rate depends on your credit, down payment and loan type.
So the cost of buying went up about $250 a month on that loan, even though prices didn't fall. That's why some buyers are taking longer to decide, and why well-priced homes are the ones that keep selling.
What does a winter market mean if I'm selling?
- You may still have an edge. Every county above is a seller's market right now, but no one can guarantee where the market goes.
- Price it right from day one. With rates over 7%, buyers stretch less. A home priced above recent sales tends to sit through the holidays.
- Less competition. Fewer sellers list in November and December, so a well-priced, well-marketed home should still see good activity.
What does it mean if I'm buying this winter?
- Don't count on a price drop. The numbers don't show one coming. Waiting for lower prices could mean waiting a long time.
- Watch rates, not just prices. Rates fell slightly two weeks in a row in late October, from 7.40% to 7.32% to 7.24% (Freddie Mac data via FRED). Even a small drop helps your monthly payment.
- Winter can mean less competition. Fewer buyers shop over the holidays. Homes that have been sitting 30+ days could be where you'll find room to negotiate.
- Get pre-approved first. It tells you your real budget at today's rates.
Frequently asked questions
Will home prices drop in the Capital Region this winter?
Nothing in the current numbers points to a drop. As of October 31, 2026, Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady and Warren counties each had about 2.7 to 4.3 months of supply, almost the same as a month earlier. Under 6 months is a seller's market.
What are mortgage rates in November 2026?
Freddie Mac's survey had the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% on October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% the week before and up from 6.17% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%.
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Albany County right now?
It's a seller's market. Albany County had about 564 homes for sale on October 31, 2026 and about 207 closings in the month before, or about 2.7 months of supply.
Alex Cooley, top-producing REALTOR®, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson and founder of The Capital Region Team at Compass.
Licensed since 2015, with 300+ real estate transactions and $100M+ in career sales volume. Named a Top 50 REALTOR® by Capital Region Real Producers in 2025, with 180+ five-star reviews across Google and Zillow. New construction and VA specialist.
Last updated November 1, 2026. This post is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice.
Sources: The Capital Region Team's MLS feed (homes for sale and recent closings, October 31, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 29, 2026; Freddie Mac 30-year rate history via FRED; National Association of Realtors, September 2026 existing-home sales.