"Should we buy now or wait?" I hear it from buyers every week, especially this time of year. The calendar does matter here, but it isn't the only thing that matters. Here's what the local numbers say, what the market looks like this week, and how to pick the right time for you.
What is the best time to buy a house in the Capital Region?
The Greater Capital Association of REALTORS (GCAR) reports sales every month from Global MLS, the MLS most Capital Region agents use. Its September 2026 report covers a full year. Here's what it looked like from a buyer's side of the table:
| Month | Homes for sale | Months of supply | Days on market | % of original list paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 2,425 | 2.7 | 26 | 99.1% |
| Nov 2025 | 2,222 | 2.5 | 30 | 98.0% |
| Dec 2025 | 1,887 | 2.1 | 32 | 97.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 1,761 | 2.0 | 37 | 97.0% |
| Feb 2026 | 1,652 | 1.9 | 43 | 96.9% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,610 | 1.8 | 44 | 97.9% |
| Apr 2026 | 1,836 | 2.1 | 40 | 98.9% |
| May 2026 | 2,105 | 2.4 | 28 | 100.4% |
| Jun 2026 | 2,349 | 2.6 | 25 | 101.5% |
| Jul 2026 | 2,523 | 2.8 | 25 | 101.0% |
| Aug 2026 | 2,632 | 3.0 | 23 | 100.4% |
| Sep 2026 | 2,590 | 2.9 | 26 | 99.1% |
Source: GCAR Monthly Indicators, September 2026. All data from Global MLS, current as of October 7, 2026. "Homes for sale" is inventory at month end. Days on market and % of original list are for homes that closed that month.
Read it as three seasons:
- Winter (December to March): the best room to negotiate. Buyers paid about 97% of the original asking price, and homes sat 32 to 44 days. The catch is the fewest homes to choose from, as few as 1,610 in March.
- Late spring and early summer (May to July): the most competition. Buyers paid more than the original asking price on average, and homes went under contract in about 25 days.
- Late summer and fall (August to November): the most choice. Inventory peaked at 2,632 homes in August, about 60% more than in March, and by October and November buyers were paying 98% to 99% of the original price again. If you need something specific, like a first-floor primary bedroom or a big lot in Ballston Spa or Wilton, more choice can matter more than a 2% discount.
Even at its August peak, the region had only 3.0 months of supply, so good homes go fast in any season here. There isn't one best month. There's a best month for your priority.
Is it cheaper to buy a house in winter in Albany, NY?
On average, yes, a little. Let's put it in dollars on a $350,000 house, which is close to the median sale price in the Capital Region.
| $350,000 listing, 10% down | Winter (Feb avg, 96.9%) | Early summer (Jun avg, 101.5%) |
|---|---|---|
| Price paid | $339,150 | $355,250 |
| Down payment (10%) | $33,915 | $35,525 |
| Loan amount | $305,235 | $319,725 |
| Principal and interest at 7.18% | $2,068/mo | $2,166/mo |
Example math by The Capital Region Team using GCAR averages for February and June 2026 and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average of 7.18% (November 5, 2026). Principal and interest only; taxes, insurance and any PMI are extra. Not a real listing or a loan quote.
That's about $16,000 less on the price, $1,600 less down, and roughly $98 a month less. Real money. But remember these are regional averages. A brand-new listing in Loudonville can still get full price in January. A house that has sat for 60 days may have more room than average. We go deeper on that in Can You Negotiate More Off the Price of a House in Winter?
And yes, the median sale price was $314,000 in February 2026 versus $379,000 in July 2026. Most of that gap is the mix of homes that sell in each season (bigger houses tend to sell in summer), not the same house losing $65,000 in value.
What does the market look like for buyers right now?
Here's a snapshot of homes for sale and under contract on the site's Global MLS feed this week, in a few of the towns our buyers ask about most:
| Town | For sale | Under contract | Avg asking price (for sale) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colonie (incl. Latham, Loudonville addresses) | 119 | 142 | $509,757 |
| Clifton Park | 63 | 83 | $600,979 |
| Niskayuna | 39 | 45 | $534,891 |
| Saratoga Springs | 100 | 51 | $1,198,871 |
| City of Albany | 222 | 179 | $373,801 |
Source: Global MLS listings on capitalregionteam.com, checked November 12, 2026 (single-family, condo, townhouse and multi-family). Averages are asking prices, not sale prices, and a few high-end homes pull them up. Albany's count was added up in two price ranges because the feed caps a single search at 200, and its average leaves out one listing with no price. Counts change daily.
In Colonie, Clifton Park and Niskayuna, more homes are under contract than for sale. Buyers are still out in November. Saratoga Springs has about two homes for sale for every one under contract, so buyers there have more to choose from this month. If you like what's on the market today, there's no need to wait for spring to start looking. You can search every listing here.
Do mortgage rates matter more than the season?
Often, yes. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the national 30-year fixed average at 7.18% on November 5, 2026, the third weekly drop in a row but still up from 6.22% a year earlier.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released November 5, 2026. National average, not a quote.
Look at the example above. On the June purchase, a half-point lower rate (6.68% instead of 7.18%) would cut the payment from about $2,166 to about $2,059 a month. That's almost exactly the winter savings. In other words, half a point on your rate can be worth as much as the whole seasonal discount.
Nobody can promise where rates will go. So I tell buyers to buy a house that works at today's rate. If rates fall later, refinancing may be an option, but plan as if it won't happen.
Are there New York dates that should change when I buy?
- Your lease. Most closings in New York take several weeks after an accepted offer, because both attorneys review the contract, you move through the inspection contingency, and the lender orders an appraisal and title work. Back into your move date from your lease end.
- Tax bills. In the Town of Colonie, school tax bills go out August 31 and town and county bills go out December 31. Taxes are split at closing, so a closing right after a bill is paid can mean you repay the seller for your share. Plan it into your cash to close. (Town of Colonie Tax Department)
How do I know if it's the right time for me to buy?
- You're pre-approved and your budget works at today's rates.
- You'd rather negotiate than compete.
- Your lease ends in late winter or spring.
- You can be flexible about the exact house or town.
- You need a specific kind of home and want the most choices.
- You need to sell your current home first and want to sell in spring.
- You want to see the yard, roof and drainage without snow.
- Your savings or credit need a few more months.
Do this if you're thinking about buying in the next six months:
- Get pre-approved now, so you know your real number at today's rate.
- Set up a home search for your towns and price range, and watch what sells and how fast.
- Pick an agent and read the buyer agreement before your first showing.
- Write down your three must-haves. In winter, that list helps you move fast when the right home shows up.
- Read our Buyer's Guide for every step from offer to closing.
For the full county picture, see our November market update, plus homes for sale in Albany County, Saratoga County and all of our Capital Region counties.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best month to buy a house in Albany, NY?
For price, February. Across the Global MLS area, homes that closed in February 2026 sold for 96.9% of their original asking price on average, the lowest of the year. For the most homes to choose from, August, when 2,632 homes were for sale.
Is it a good idea to buy a house in winter in the Capital Region?
For many buyers, yes. Winter brings less competition and more room to negotiate, with homes taking 32 to 44 days to sell from December 2025 through March 2026. The trade-off is fewer homes to choose from.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying a house?
Only if the home doesn't work at today's rate. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.18% on November 5, 2026, per Freddie Mac. A half-point drop can save about as much as the seasonal winter discount, but no one can promise when or if rates will fall.
When do I have to buy a home to get the STAR credit in New York?
New York uses the owner on July 1 to decide STAR eligibility for that year. Buy before July 1 and you can be eligible that year; buy after and you wait a year. New owners register for the credit with the NYS Department of Taxation and Finance.
FAQ figures: GCAR Monthly Indicators, September 2026 (Global MLS data, current as of October 7, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS, November 5, 2026; NYS Tax Department STAR FAQs.
Alex Cooley, top-producing REALTOR®, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson and founder of The Capital Region Team at Compass.
Licensed since 2015, with 300+ real estate transactions and $100M+ in career sales volume. Named a Top 50 REALTOR® by Capital Region Real Producers in 2025, with 180+ five-star reviews across Google and Zillow. New construction and VA specialist.
Last updated November 13, 2026. This post is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice.
Sources: Greater Capital Association of REALTORS, Monthly Indicators, September 2026 (Global MLS data, current as of October 7, 2026); Global MLS listings on capitalregionteam.com, checked November 12, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026; NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, STAR FAQs; Town of Colonie Tax Department. Dollar examples are our own math.